Research
Analysis of statistical power reconciles drought-conflict results in Africa
Solomon M. Hsiang, Marshall Burke, Edward Miguel, Kyle C. Meng, Mark A. Cane
2016
African DevelopmentEnvironment and ClimateResearch Methodology
Whether changes in climate substantially shape human conflict is a question of considerable recent interest to both academics and policymakers. Despite a substantial body of evidence for a strong association between climate and conflict, it remains widely claimed that large-sample empirical evidence linking climatic conditions and modern human conflict in Africa is mixed and thus any reported evidence for a strong association should be discounted. Theisen, Holterman, and Buhaug (henceforth THB) is one of the studies used to support this claim. Here we show that the results in THB are not inconsistent with earlier studies that report a substantial e ect of of climate on conflict. We demonstrate using power calculations and Monte Carlo simulations that even if a large association between climate and conflict existed in the data, the approach of THB would not be able to reliably distinguish this association from a null e ect, indicating that the approach taken by THB is statistically underpowered in this context. Therefore THB's analysis provides no basis for discarding earlier analyses and THB's conclusions drawn from this analysis overstate the extent to which they disagree with the literature. We also demonstrate that THB's stated advantage from using exceptionally high resolution data is unlikely to be realized in their analysis, since high resolution rainfall data was not actually collected in the majority conflict zones studied by THB. Although unremarked in the original analysis, the rainfall data in THB are interpolations of sparse and incomplete rainfall measurements.
Scientists link rising temperatures with violence and civil warKALW
Conflict, Climate, and African Development (Oxford)Oxford, UKMarch 18, 2013
Conflict, Climate, and African Development (Harvard)Cambridge, MA, USAApril 2, 2013
Conflict, Climate + Development in AfricaZurich, SwitzerlandNovember 16, 2015
International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium (IATRC): The Economics of Civil WarSan Diego, CADecember 7, 2014
TEDxBerkeley talk: Climate, Conflict, and African DevelopmentZellerbach Hall, UC BerkeleyFebruary 8, 2014
Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human ConflictPublished PaperEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and ConflictResearch Methodology2013
Climate and ConflictOtherEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and ConflictResearch Methodology2015
Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables ApproachPublished PaperAfrican DevelopmentEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and Conflict2004
Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic productionPublished PaperAfrican DevelopmentEnvironment and Climate2015
Poverty and Witch KillingPublished PaperAfrican DevelopmentEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and Conflict2005
Re-examining Economic Shocks and Civil ConflictPublished PaperEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and Conflict2011
Reconciling climate-conflict meta-analyses: reply to Buhaug et al.Published PaperAfrican DevelopmentEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and ConflictResearch Methodology2014
Reconciling Temperature-conflict Results in KenyaWorking PaperAfrican DevelopmentEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and Conflict2013
Temperature and violencePublished PaperEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and ConflictResearch Methodology2014
Warming Increases the Risk of Civil War in AfricaPublished PaperAfrican DevelopmentEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and Conflict2009
Weather and ViolenceNew York Times