Research
Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach
Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti
2004
African DevelopmentEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and Conflict
Estimating the impact of economic conditions on the likelihood of civil conflict is difficult because of endogeneity and omitted variable bias. We use rainfall variation as an instrumental variable for economic growth in 41 African countries during 1981-99. Growth is strongly negatively related to civil conflict: a negative growth shock of five percentage points increases the likelihood of conflict by one?half the following year. We attempt to rule out other channels through which rainfall may affect conflict. Surprisingly, the impact of growth shocks on conflict is not significantly different in richer, more democratic, or more ethnically diverse countries.
Use Foreign Aid to Prevent Catastrophe?Marginal Revolution Blog, by Tyler Cowen
The Price of Climate ChangeNew York Times: Freakonomics Blog, by Stephen J. Dubner and Steven D. Levitt
How climate change makes the world more violentThe Washington Post
What Is The Relationship Between Climate Change And Armed Conflicts?Technology.org
New Limits to Growth Revive Malthusian FearsWall Street Journal
Extended Forecast: BloodshedNew York Times, by Nicholas D. Kristof
Trump’s Security Vision Leaves Little Room for PlowsharesNew York Times
‘Weather’ you like it or not, food crisis loomsKhaleej Times
Food crises to become more common as climate changesChristian Science Monitor
How climate change threatens national securityThe Christian Science Monitor
Confronting Fragility and Conflict in Africa: What Does the Research Tell Us?World Bank - Africa Can End Poverty
Civil War Exposure and ViolencePublished PaperOtherPolitical Economy and Conflict2011
Economic Shocks and Democratization in AfricaPublished PaperAfrican DevelopmentEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and Conflict2013
Poverty and Crime in 19th Century GermanyPublished PaperEnvironment and ClimateOtherPolitical Economy and Conflict2006
Poverty and Violence: An Overview of Recent Research and Implications for Foreign AidBook ChapterEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and Conflict2007
Poverty and Witch KillingPublished PaperAfrican DevelopmentEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and Conflict2005
Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human ConflictPublished PaperEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and ConflictResearch Methodology2013
Re-examining Economic Shocks and Civil ConflictPublished PaperEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and Conflict2011
Reconciling climate-conflict meta-analyses: reply to Buhaug et al.Published PaperAfrican DevelopmentEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and ConflictResearch Methodology2014
Warming Increases the Risk of Civil War in AfricaPublished PaperAfrican DevelopmentEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and Conflict2009
Temperature and violencePublished PaperEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and ConflictResearch Methodology2014
Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic productionPublished PaperAfrican DevelopmentEnvironment and Climate2015
Analysis of statistical power reconciles drought-conflict results in AfricaWorking PaperAfrican DevelopmentEnvironment and ClimateResearch Methodology2016
Climate and ConflictOtherEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and ConflictResearch Methodology2015
Civil WarPublished PaperPolitical Economy and Conflict2010
Africa’s Turn?
Economic Gangsters
Do Conflicts Cause Poverty, or Vice Versa?VoxEU
How to Prevent War and FamineForbes
Using Foreign Aid to Stop ConflictMarketplace
Is it Africa’s Turn?Boston Review
Stop Conflict Before It StartsBloomberg
TEDxBerkeley talk: Climate, Conflict, and African DevelopmentZellerbach Hall, UC BerkeleyFebruary 8, 2014
Economic Gangsters: Corruption, Violence, and the Poverty of Nations (Google)Mountain View, CA, USAJanuary 30, 2009
Why are Poor Countries Poor?Los Angeles, CA, USAOctober 28, 2008
Economic Gangsters: Corruption, Violence and the Poverty of Nations (Microsoft)Mountain View, CA, USAOctober 23, 2008
Climate, Conflict and Economic Development: The Next 50 YearsUniversity of Oslo, NorwayOctober 19, 2017
Life is a Lab Lecture: Climate and ConflictNorwegian School of Economics, Bergen, NorwayOctober 18, 2017
Conflict, Climate + Development in AfricaZurich, SwitzerlandNovember 16, 2015