This paper estimates the impact of a large anti-poverty cash transfer program, the Uruguayan PANES, on political support for the government that implemented it. Using the discontinuity in program assignment based on a pretreatment eligibility score, we find that beneficiary households are 11 to 13 percentage points more likely to favor the current government relative to the previous government. Political support effects persist after the program ends. Our results are consistent with theories of rational but poorly informed voters who use policy to infer politicians' redistributive preferences or competence, as well as with behavioral economics explanations grounded in reciprocity.
Marco Manacorda, Edward Miguel, and Andrea Vigorito
HealthEducation and Human CapitalOtherPolitical Economy and Conflict
Uruguay: "Government Transfers and Political Support"MercoPress
CCTs and Winning ElectionsUrbanomics Blog, by Gulzar Natarajan
Prestaciones IncondicionadasLa Diaria (Uruguay)
Do Cash Transfers Improve Birth Outcomes? Evidence from Matched Vital Statistics, Social Security and Program DataPublished PaperHealthEducation and Human CapitalOther2016