Research
Poverty and Crime in 19th Century Germany
Halvor Mehlum, Edward Miguel, and Ragnar Torvik
2006
Environment and ClimateOtherPolitical Economy and Conflict
We estimate the impact of poverty on crime in 19th century Bavaria, Germany. Rainfall is used as an instrumental variable for grain (rye) prices to address econometric identification problems in the existing literature. The rye price was a major determinant of living standards during this period. The rye price has a positive effect on property crime: a one standard deviation increased property crime by 8%. OLS estimates are twice as large as instrumental variable estimates, highlighting the value of our empirical approach. Higher rye prices lead to significantly less violent crime, though, and we argue that higher beer prices, caused by the higher rye prices, are a likely explanation.
Warming Increases the Risk of Civil War in AfricaPublished PaperAfrican DevelopmentEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and Conflict2009
Civil War Exposure and ViolencePublished PaperOtherPolitical Economy and Conflict2011
Poverty and Witch KillingPublished PaperAfrican DevelopmentEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and Conflict2005
Re-examining Economic Shocks and Civil ConflictPublished PaperEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and Conflict2011
Climate and ConflictOtherEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and ConflictResearch Methodology2015
Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables ApproachPublished PaperAfrican DevelopmentEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and Conflict2004
TEDxBerkeley talk: Climate, Conflict, and African DevelopmentZellerbach Hall, UC BerkeleyFebruary 8, 2014
Climate, Conflict and Economic Development: The Next 50 YearsUniversity of Oslo, NorwayOctober 19, 2017
Life is a Lab Lecture: Climate and ConflictNorwegian School of Economics, Bergen, NorwayOctober 18, 2017