Is human-caused climate change likely to trigger enduring economic decline in modern societies? Historical data suggests that warming temperatures can slow economic growth and raise the risk of civil conflict. In this talk, Prof. Miguel discusses whether future warming from climate change may push some African countries into a “climate-conflict poverty trap,” where rising conflict slows growth and vice versa, potentially triggering long-term economic collapse. Using empirical data and climate model projections, the analysis finds that climate change substantially increases the likelihood that many countries could be pushed into persistent states of high conflict and negative growth, with 42% of African country simulations exhibiting net negative growth over the remainder of the twenty-first century. He argues that aggressive emissions mitigation, conflict prevention, and adaptation strategies may each play an important role in reducing the risk of catastrophic human impacts from climate change in many African countries.
Sponsored by the Walter Krause Economics Lecture Fund, the Reed College Economics Department, and the Reed College Environmental Studies Program. Free and open to the public.