Keynote Address – Pacific Conference for Development Economics (PacDev) 2026, UC Davis

Edward Miguel presents new theory and evidence on whether climate change could trap African economies in a self-reinforcing cycle of conflict and poverty. Joint work with Joel Ferguson, Marshall Burke, and Solomon Hsiang, the talk builds on three well-established empirical regularities; poorer countries are more prone to conflict under warming, warming slows growth (especially in poor and hot regions), and conflict itself depresses growth – to ask how likely it is that countries become caught in a “climate-conflict poverty trap.”

Conference website: https://pacdev.ucdavis.edu/

Presentation Slides