Do Cash Transfers Improve Birth Outcomes? Evidence from Matched Vital Statistics, Social Security and Program Data

Verónica Amarante, Marco Manacorda, Edward Miguel, and Andrea Vigorito
2016
HealthEducation and Human CapitalOther
Do Cash Transfers Improve Birth Outcomes Evidence from Matched Vital Statistics and Program and Social Security Data.pdf

There is limited empirical evidence on whether cash transfers to poor pregnant women improve children's birth outcomes and potentially help weaken the cycle of intergenerational poverty. Using a unique array of program and social security administrative micro- data matched to longitudinal vital statistics in Uruguay, we estimate that participation in a generous social assistance program led to a sizable reduction in the incidence of low birthweight. The effect is due to faster intrauterine growth rather than longer gestational length. Our findings are consistent with improved maternal nutrition during pregnancy being a key driver of improved birthweight.

Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict

Solomon M. Hsiang, Marshall Burke, and Edward Miguel
2013
Environment and ClimatePolitical Economy and ConflictResearch Methodology

A rapidly growing body of research examines whether human conflict can be affected by climatic changes. Drawing from archaeology, criminology, economics, geography, history, political science, and psychology, we assemble and analyze the 60 most rigorous quantitative studies and document, for the first time, a remarkable convergence of results. We find strong causal evidence linking climatic events to human conflict across a range of spatial and temporal scales and across all major regions of the world. The magnitude of climate's influence is substantial: for each 1 standard deviation (1σ) change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall, median estimates indicate that the frequency of interpersonal violence rises 4% and the frequency of intergroup conflict rises 14%. Because locations throughout the inhabited world are expected to warm 2 to 4σ by 2050, amplified rates of human conflict could represent a large and critical impact of anthropogenic climate change.

Risky Transportation Choices and the Value of a Statistical Life

Gianmarco León and Edward Miguel
2017
African DevelopmentHealthEducation and Human CapitalOther
SL-VSL 2016-07-07-CLEAN.pdf

This paper exploits an unusual transportation setting to generate some of the first revealed preference value of a statistical life (VSL) estimates from a low-income setting. We estimate the trade-offs individuals are willing to make between mortality risk and cost as they travel to and from the international airport in Sierra Leone. The setting and original dataset allow us to address some typical omitted variable concerns, and also to compare VSL estimates for travelers from different countries, all facing the same choice situation. The average VSL estimate for African travelers in the sample is US$577,000 compared to US$924,000 for non-Africans.

Poverty and Crime in 19th Century Germany

Halvor Mehlum, Edward Miguel, and Ragnar Torvik
2006
Environment and ClimateOtherPolitical Economy and Conflict
Paper Poverty and Crime in 19th Century Germany.pdf

We estimate the impact of poverty on crime in 19th century Bavaria, Germany. Rainfall is used as an instrumental variable for grain (rye) prices to address econometric identification problems in the existing literature. The rye price was a major determinant of living standards during this period. The rye price has a positive effect on property crime: a one standard deviation increased property crime by 8%. OLS estimates are twice as large as instrumental variable estimates, highlighting the value of our empirical approach. Higher rye prices lead to significantly less violent crime, though, and we argue that higher beer prices, caused by the higher rye prices, are a likely explanation.

The Value of Democracy: Evidence from Road Building in Kenya

Robin Burgess, Remi Jedwab, Edward Miguel, Ameet Morjaria, and Gerard Padró i Miquel
2015
African DevelopmentPolitical Economy and Conflict
aer 2E20131031.pdf
Ethnic favoritism is seen as antithetical to development. This paper provides credible quantification of the extent of ethnic favoritism using data on road building in Kenyan districts across the 1963-2011 period. Guided by a model it then examines whether the transition in and out of democracy under the same president constrains or exacerbates ethnic favoritism. Across the 1963 to 2011 period, we Â…find strong evidence of ethnic favoritism: districts that share the ethnicity of the president receive twice as much expenditure on roads and have four times the length of paved roads built. This favoritism disappears during periods of democracy.

Tribe or Nation? Nation Building and Public Goods in Kenya Versus Tanzania

Edward Miguel
2004
African DevelopmentHealthEducation and Human CapitalPolitical Economy and Conflict
Paper Tribe or Nation - Nation Building and Public Goods in Kenya versus Tanzania.pdf

This article examines how government policies affect ethnic relations by comparing outcomes across two nearby districts, one in Kenya and one in Tanzania, using colonial-era boundary placement as a "natural experiment." Despite similar geography and historical legacies, governments in Kenya and Tanzania have followed radically different language, education, and local institutional policies, with Tanzania consistently pursuing more serious nation building. The evidence suggests that nation building has allowed diverse communities in rural Tanzania to achieve considerably better local public goods outcomes than diverse communities in Kenya. To illustrate, while Kenyan communities at mean levels of diversity have 25 percent less local school funding than homogeneous communities on average, the comparable figure in the Tanzanian district is near zero. The Kenya-Tanzania comparison provides empirical evidence that serious reforms can ameliorate social divisions and suggests that nation-building should take a place on policy agendas, especially in Africa.

Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach

Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti
2004
African DevelopmentEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and Conflict
Paper Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict.pdf

Estimating the impact of economic conditions on the likelihood of civil conflict is difficult because of endogeneity and omitted variable bias. We use rainfall variation as an instrumental variable for economic growth in 41 African countries during 1981-99. Growth is strongly negatively related to civil conflict: a negative growth shock of five percentage points increases the likelihood of conflict by one?half the following year. We attempt to rule out other channels through which rainfall may affect conflict. Surprisingly, the impact of growth shocks on conflict is not significantly different in richer, more democratic, or more ethnically diverse countries.

Worms: Identifying Impacts on Education and Health in the Presence of Treatment Externalities

Edward Miguel and Michael Kremer
2004
African DevelopmentHealthEducation and Human CapitalResearch Methodology
Paper Worms.pdf

Intestinal helminths–including hookworm, roundworm, whipworm, and schistosomiasis–infect more than one-quarter of the world's population. Studies in which medical treatment is randomized at the individual level potentially doubly underestimate the benefits of treatment, missing externality benefits to the comparison group from reduced disease transmission, and therefore also underestimating benefits for the treatment group. We evaluate a Kenyan project in which school-based mass treatment with deworming drugs was randomly phased into schools, rather than to individuals, allowing estimation of overall program effects. The program reduced school absenteeism in treatment schools by one-quarter, and was far cheaper than alternative ways of boosting school participation. Deworming substantially improved health and school participation among untreated children in both treatment schools and neighboring schools, and these externalities are large enough to justify fully subsidizing treatment. Yet we do not find evidence that deworming improved academic test scores.

Poverty and Witch Killing

Edward Miguel
2005
African DevelopmentEnvironment and ClimatePolitical Economy and Conflict
Paper Poverty and Witch Killing.pdf

This study uses rainfall variation to estimate the impact of income shocks on murder in rural Tanzania. Extreme rainfall (drought or flood) leads to a large increase in the murder of "witches"–typically elderly women killed by relatives–but not other murders. The findings provide novel evidence on the role of income shocks in causing violent crime, and religious violence in particular.

Does Social Capital Promote Industrialization? Evidence from a Rapid Industrializer

Edward Miguel, Paul Gertler, and David I. Levine
2005
Other
Paper Does Social Capital Promote Industrialization.pdf

A new stylized fact in development economics is the importance of social capital in promoting economic growth. This paper examines the effect of social capital on industrialization in Indonesia. We analyze a rich set of social capital and social interaction measures, including voluntary associational activity and levels of trust and informal cooperation. The main finding is that initial social capital does not predict subsequent industrial development across 274 Indonesian districts. Though these findings are for only a single nation and may not apply everywhere, they call into question recent claims regarding social capital and economic development.

Ethnic Diversity, Social Sanctions, and Public Goods in Kenya

Edward Miguel and Mary Kay Gugerty
2005
African DevelopmentPolitical Economy and Conflict
Paper Ethnic Diversity Social Sanctions and Public Goods in Kenya.pdf

This paper examines ethnic diversity and local public goods in rural western Kenya. The identification strategy relies on the stable historically determined patterns of ethnic land settlement. Ethnic diversity is associated with lower primary school funding and worse school facilities, and there is suggestive evidence that it leads to poor water well maintenance. The theoretical model illustrates how inability to impose social sanctions in diverse communities leads to collective action failures, and we find that school committees in diverse areas do impose fewer sanctions on defaulting parents. We relate these results to the literature on social capital and economic development and discuss implications for decentralization in less developed countries.

Who are Russia’s Entrepreneurs?

Simeon Djankov, Edward Miguel, Yingyi Qian, Gerard Roland, and Ekaterina Zhuravskaya
2005
Other
Paper Who are Russias Entrepreneurs.pdf

Social scientists studying entrepreneurship have emphasized three distinct sets of variables: the institutional environment, sociological variables, and personal and psychological characteristics. We are conducting surveys in five large developing and transition economies to better understand entrepreneurship. In this short paper, using over 2,000 interviews from a pilot study in Russia, we find evidence that the three sets of variables matter: perceptions of the local institutional environment, social network effects, and individual characteristics are all important in determining entrepreneurial behavior.