Müller, Maximilian, Joan Hamory, Jennifer Johnson-Hanks, Edward Miguel. (2022) “The illusion of stable fertility preferences”, Population Studies, 76(2): 169-189, doi: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2057577.

Fertility preferences have long played a key role in models of fertility differentials and change. We examine the stability of preferences over time using rich panel data on Kenyan women’s fertility desires, expectations, actual fertility, and recall of desires in three waves over a nine-year period, when respondents were in their 20s. We find that although desired fertility is quite unstable, most women perceive their desires to be stable. Under hypothetical future scenarios, few expect their desired fertility to increase over time but, in fact, such increases in fertility desires are common. Moreover, when asked to recall past desires, most respondents report previously wanting exactly as many children as they desire today. These patterns of bias are consistent with the emerging view that fertility desires are contextual, emotionally laden, and structured by identity.

Laitin, David, Edward Miguel, Ala’ Alrababa’h, Aleksandar Bogdanoski, Sean Grant, Katherine Hoeberling, Cecilia Hyunjung Mo, Don A Moore, Simine Vazire, Jeremy Weinstein, Scott Williamson. (2021) “Reporting all results efficiently: A RARE proposal to open up the file drawer”, PNAS, 118(52):e2106178118. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2106178118.

While the social sciences have made impressive progress in adopting transparent research practices that facilitate verification, replication, and reuse of materials, the problem of publication bias persists. Bias on the part of peer reviewers and journal editors, as well as the use of outdated research practices by authors, continues to skew literature toward statistically significant effects, many of which may be false positives. To mitigate this bias, we propose a framework to enable authors to report all results efficiently (RARE), with an initial focus on experimental and other prospective empirical social science research that utilizes public study registries. This framework depicts an integrated system that leverages the capacities of existing infrastructure in the form of public registries, institutional review boards, journals, and granting agencies, as well as investigators themselves, to efficiently incentivize full reporting and thereby, improve confidence in social science findings. In addition to increasing access to the results of scientific endeavors, a well-coordinated research ecosystem can prevent scholars from wasting time investigating the same questions in ways that have not worked in the past and reduce wasted funds on the part of granting agencies.

Casey, Katherine , Rachel Glennerster, Edward Miguel, Maarten Voors. (2021) “Skills Versus Voice in Local Development”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, doi: 10.1162/rest_a_01082

Where the state is weak, traditional authorities control the local provision of public goods. These leaders come from an older, less educated generation and often rule in an authoritarian and exclusionary fashion. This means the skills of community members may not be leveraged in policy making. We experimentally evaluate two solutions to this problem in Sierra Leone: one encourages delegation to higher skill individuals and a second fosters broader inclusion in decision-making. In a real-world infrastructure grants competition, a public nudge to delegate lead to better outcomes than the default of chiefly control, whereas attempts to boost participation were largely ineffective.

Jakubowski, Alexandra, Dennis Egger, Carolyne Nekesa, Layna Lowe, Michael Walker, Edward Miguel. (2021) “Self-reported vs Directly Observed Face Mask Use in Kenya”, JAMA Network Open, 4(7):e2118830, doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.18830

Although countries in sub-Saharan Africa have so far avoided large-scale outbreaks of COVID-19, as of June 2021, the number of new cases has been surging in multiple nations. The official case count in Kenya was 179 876 confirmed cases in June 2021, including 1597 cases in Siaya county. One explanation for the relatively low spread of COVID-19 is the strict lockdown measures that were imposed early but were eventually eased because of their harsh socioeconomic consequences. Masks emerged as a prominent strategy to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission before widespread vaccinations and have been legally mandated in Kenya since April 2020. Yet compliance with public health guidelines is not guaranteed and motivating people to adopt new preventive health behaviors is inherently difficult. In this cross-sectional study, we examine the extent to which mask mandates are followed and quantify the bias of self-reported mask usage.