Targeting Impact versus Deprivation

Johannes Haushofer, Paul Niehaus, Carlos Paramo, Edward Miguel, and Michael Walker
2022
African DevelopmentResearch Methodology
Targeting-impact-vs-deprivation MAIN-TEXT 2022-12-15.pdf

Haushofer, Johannes, Paul Niehaus, Carlos Paramo, Edward Miguel, Michael Walker. (2022). “Targeting impact versus deprivation”, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper #30138.

A large literature has examined how best to target anti-poverty programs to those most deprived in some sense (e.g., consumption). We examine the potential tradeoff between this objective versus targeting those most impacted by such programs. We work in the context of an NGO cash transfer program in Kenya, utilizing recent advances in machine learning methods and dynamic outcome data to learn proxy means tests that target both objectives in turn. Targeting solely on the basis of deprivation is generally not attractive under standard social welfare criteria, even when the planner’s preferences
are highly redistributive.

The Syrian Refugee Life Study: First Glance

Sarah Stillman, Sandra V. Rozo, Abdulrazzak Tamim, I. Bailey Palmer, Emma Smith, and Edward Miguel
2022
African Development
grac023.pdf

Stillman, Sarah, Sandra V. Rozo, Abdulrazzak Tamim, I. Bailey Palmer, Emma Smith, and Edward Miguel. (2022). “The Syrian Refugee Life Study: First Glance”. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol. 38, no. 3: 625–653, https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grac023.

This paper presents descriptive statistics from the first wave of the Syrian Refugee Life Study (S-RLS), which began in 2020. S-RLS is a longitudinal study that tracks a representative sample of approximately 2,500 registered Syrian refugee households in Jordan. It collects comprehensive data on sociodemographic variables, health and well-being, preferences, social capital, attitudes, and safety and crime perceptions. We use these data to document the sociodemographic characteristics of Syrian refugees in Jordan and compare them to representative populations in the 2016 Jordan Labor Market Panel Survey (JLMPS). Our findings point to lags in basic service access, housing quality, and educational attainment for Syrian refugees relative to non-refugees. The impacts of the pandemic may partially explain these disparities. The data also show that most Syrian refugees have not recovered economically after COVID-19 and have larger gender disparities in income, employment, prevalence of child marriage, and gender attitudes than their non-refugee counterparts. Finally, mental health problems were common for Syrian refugees in 2020, with depression indicated among more than 45 percent of the phone survey sample and 61 percent of the in-person survey sample.

The Economics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Poor Countries

Edward Miguel and Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
2022
EC14CH11 Miguel253-285.pdf

Miguel, Edward, A. Mushfiq Mobarak. (2022) “The Economics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Poor Countries”, Annual Review of Economics, 14, doi: 10.1146/annurev-economics-051520-025412.

The COVID-19 pandemic has upended health and living standards around the world. This article provides an interim overview of these effects, with a particular focus on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Economists have explained how the pandemic is likely to have different consequences for LMICs and demands distinct policy responses compared to those of rich countries. We survey the rapidly expanding body of empirical research that documents the pandemic’s many adverse economic and noneconomic effects in terms of living standards, education, health, and gender equality, which appear to be unprecedented in scope and scale. We also review research on successful and failed policy responses, including the failure to ensure widespread vaccine coverage in many LMICs, which is needed to end the pandemic. We close with a discussion of implications for public policy in LMICs and for the institutions of international governance, given the likelihood of future pandemics and other major shocks (e.g., climate).

The illusion of stable fertility preferences

Maximilian W. Müller, Joan Hamory, Jennifer Johnson-Hanks, Edward Miguel
2022
The-illusion-of-stable-fertility-preferences.pdf

Müller, Maximilian, Joan Hamory, Jennifer Johnson-Hanks, Edward Miguel. (2022) “The illusion of stable fertility preferences”, Population Studies, 76(2): 169-189, doi: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2057577.

Fertility preferences have long played a key role in models of fertility differentials and change. We examine the stability of preferences over time using rich panel data on Kenyan women’s fertility desires, expectations, actual fertility, and recall of desires in three waves over a nine-year period, when respondents were in their 20s. We find that although desired fertility is quite unstable, most women perceive their desires to be stable. Under hypothetical future scenarios, few expect their desired fertility to increase over time but, in fact, such increases in fertility desires are common. Moreover, when asked to recall past desires, most respondents report previously wanting exactly as many children as they desire today. These patterns of bias are consistent with the emerging view that fertility desires are contextual, emotionally laden, and structured by identity.

End COVID-19 in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, Edward Miguel, Jason Abaluck, Amrita Ahuja, Marcella Alsan, Abhijit Banerjee, Emily Breza, Arun G. Chandrasekhar, Esther Duflo, James Dzansi, Denise Garrett, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Gregg S. Gonsalves, Muhammad Masqud Hossain, Aleksandra Jakubowski, Gagandeep Kang, Arjun Kharel, Michael Kremer, Niccolo Meriggi, Carol Nekesa, Benjamin A. Olken, Saad B. Omer, Firdausi Qadri, Helen Rees, Babatunde Salako, Maarten Voors, Shana Warren, and Witold Wiecek
2022
African DevelopmentHealth
science.abo4089.pdf

Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq, Edward Miguel, Jason Abaluck, Amrita Ahuja, Marcella Alsan, Abhijit Banerjee, Emily Breza, Arun G. Chandrasekhar, Esther Duflo, James Dzansi, Denise Garrett, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Gregg S. Gonsalves, Muhammad Masqud Hossain, Aleksandra Jakubowski, Gagandeep Kang, Arjun Kharel, Michael Kremer, Niccolo Meriggi, Carol Nekesa, Benjamin A. Olken, Saad B. Omer, Firdausi Qadri, Helen Rees, Babatunde Salako, Maarten Voors, Shana Warren, Witold Wiecek. (2022). “End COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries”, Science, 375(6586), doi: 10.1126/science.abo4089

Vaccines are changing the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, but in grossly uneven ways. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) face considerable obstacles in both receiving and distributing doses. To limit virus transmission, its devastating impacts, and opportunities for further mutations, this must change. Until it does, nonpharmaceutical interventions such as masking must remain a priority. Science invited global experts to highlight research and innovations aimed at quickening the end of COVID-19 in LMICs.

General Equilibrium Effects of Cash Transfers: Experimental Evidence from Kenya

Dennis Egger, Johannes Haushofer, Edward Miguel, Paul Niehaus, and Michael Walker
2022
African DevelopmentOtherResearch Methodology
ecta200500.pdf

Egger, Dennis, Johannes Haushofer, Edward Miguel, Paul Niehaus, and Michael Walker. (2022). “General Equilibrium Effects of Cash Transfers: Experimental Evidence from Kenya”, Econometrica, 90 (6): 2603-2643, doi: 10.3982/ECTA17945.

How large economic stimuli generate individual and aggregate responses is a central question in economics, but has not been studied experimentally. We provided one-time cash transfers of about USD 1000 to over 10,500 poor households across 653 randomized villages in rural Kenya. The implied fiscal shock was over 15 percent of local GDP. We find large impacts on consumption and assets for recipients. Importantly, we document large positive spillovers on non-recipient households and firms, and minimal price inflation. We estimate a local transfer multiplier of 2.5. We interpret welfare
implications through the lens of a simple household optimization framework.