General Equilibrium Effects of Cash Transfers: Experimental Evidence from Kenya

This study, recently published in Econometrica (2022), provides evidence on how large economic stimuli generate individual and aggregate responses. A one-time cash transfer of USD 1000 was given to over 10,500 poor households across 653 randomized villages in rural western Kenya. The implied fiscal shock was over 15 percent of local GDP. Recipient households experienced significant consumption and expenditure gains, and importantly, the study finds large positive spillovers on non-recipient households and firms. Authors estimate a local transfer multiplier of 2.5. (We also provide teaching slides for the paper here.) This article was awarded the Econometric Society’s 2024 Frisch Medal for best applied paper published in Econometrica in the previous four years.

Co-authors: Paul Niehaus, Johannes Haushofer, Michael W. Walker, and Dennis Egger.

Media coverage here on Vox, NPR, The Economist, and The Washington Post.

Backstory: Edward Miguel and Paul Niehaus on the General Equilibrium Effects of Cash Transfers (Podcast) in June, 2024.